Playoffs

Main subforum for all things Southport FC
Ste_B
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Posts: 416
Joined: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:19 pm

Re: Playoffs

Post by Ste_B »

Redrobe fan wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:04 pm
Sandgrounder SE wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 9:45 pm Playoffs always a gamble. We trailed Brackley and Fylde all season, but for quite a while we were ahead of York and Boston…what might have been
Yes. For a while it was looking good.
I've yet to read a rational analysis of what suddenly went wrong and shifted us from top of the form league to relegation form. It cant be simply because Carver left. I don't fully accept the 'our players became very tired' hypothesis either, or that it was because some were offered new contracts. These are all apparently valid factors, to an extent, but to crash like we did requires more explanation.
My theory is we were never really that good in the first place. Much like we were never that bad when we were bottom. And actually fairly consistent throughout the season.

Some super fun stats to back up this theory...

We won or drew 19 of our 21 home games

We drew or lost 15 of our 21 away games

We won or drew 18 of our 22 games against the bottom half

We drew or lost 18 of our 20 games against the top half
Redrobe fan
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Posts: 469
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2020 10:51 am

Re: Playoffs

Post by Redrobe fan »

Sam, It isn’t rocket science (which incidentally is not particularly difficult) but it is more complex than you suggest.
I don’t swallow that the terrible run of results was simply down to being part time.
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TrickyDicky
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Posts: 362
Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:10 pm

Re: Playoffs

Post by TrickyDicky »

Ste_B
“My theory is we were never really that good in the first place. Much like we were never that bad when we were bottom”

Spot on, I’ve said previously apart from 4-5 games York, Chester, Kidderminster, possibly Gateshead away games and Solihull at home there’s not one game and I watched 40+ games that we couldn’t have won or lost. When we dominated we failed to put teams to the sword e.g. Chester, Darlington and Curzon at home and in games where we had the lions share of play we sometimes let teams steal a point or 3, Leamington h , Alfreton a .
Overall we improved by a margin on the previous season, became more streetwise, some players have matured and continue to improve , but still lacked tactical variation and for me an old hand in the middle of midfield and a like replacement for Marcus .
However, It’s no coincidence that the full time teams dominated the play offs , as I genuinely believe that the part time sides do run out of steam come Late February and invariably pick up key injuries to smaller squads and are less well versed in set pieces and formations which full times can work on. It’s becoming a more tougher league than ever to get out of with no gimmes whatsoever these days against village teams.
I’m glad Gateshead got promoted I’d have preferred Boston to go up and was delighted those toads at Chorley and Weasels at Fylde get to play us again.
Exiled Port Fan
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Posts: 365
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:50 pm

Re: Playoffs

Post by Exiled Port Fan »

When we and Marcus were on our hot streak it felt like he and we would score. That gives our defence confidence that a mistake is not as costly (so they relax, play better) and make an opposition defence fear that goal, so play deeper, be more timid. Our other attackers have less pressure, plus more space as the opposition focus on the threat.

Once Marcus left, the psychology switches, our defence gets more worried, opposition defence are feeling braver and our attackers have less space and more pressure.
Redrobe fan
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Posts: 469
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2020 10:51 am

Re: Playoffs

Post by Redrobe fan »

Some interesting stuff.

And did other clubs just get wise to the long throw ins etc?
mark thomas
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Posts: 223
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:11 am

Re: Playoffs

Post by mark thomas »

Ste_B wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 6:07 pm
Redrobe fan wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:04 pm
Sandgrounder SE wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 9:45 pm Playoffs always a gamble. We trailed Brackley and Fylde all season, but for quite a while we were ahead of York and Boston…what might have been
Yes. For a while it was looking good.
I've yet to read a rational analysis of what suddenly went wrong and shifted us from top of the form league to relegation form. It cant be simply because Carver left. I don't fully accept the 'our players became very tired' hypothesis either, or that it was because some were offered new contracts. These are all apparently valid factors, to an extent, but to crash like we did requires more explanation.
My theory is we were never really that good in the first place. Much like we were never that bad when we were bottom. And actually fairly consistent throughout the season.

Some super fun stats to back up this theory...

We won or drew 19 of our 21 home games

We drew or lost 15 of our 21 away games

We won or drew 18 of our 22 games against the bottom half

We drew or lost 18 of our 20 games against the top half
Some interesting stats there Ste, only two defeats at home was excellent, level best in the division along with Brackley.

Haig Ave has become a tough place to visit - it's been 12 years since that was the case. Hopefully the lads can keep it going next season
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